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Showing posts from December 13, 2020

Oil price boom continues despite the gloomy forecasts

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Oil price rise continued throughout the week despite worrying economic activities due to increased virus infections - across the world. It's the third wave that is yet to reach its peak and policy makers are collectively scratching their heads to find solutions to mitigate the inevitable impact. The only solution at present is the news about the effectiveness of a few vaccines. Their efficacy, however, remains to be seen. Adding insult to injury, the virus is evolving and we can only hope that it will not a few steps ahead of vaccine manufactures, as it often happens with winter flue vaccines. Perhaps, the hope of the potential of the vaccines and the Coronavirus-fatigue keep investors put their faith in buying stocks; they instinctively know, perhaps, the dark days in April, 2020, when oil price hit below zero, may not repeat in a cyclic way. Since geopolitical developments are fairly stable in the Middle East, there are no signs of supply disruptions in the region in th

Electric Vehicle Boom: Toyota CEO talks about the elephant in the room

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  Electric charging points are mushrooming in the Western world and so is the visibility of electric vehicles on our roads with an ever increasing frequency. Of course, electric cars do not pollute the environment with carbon emissions; there is no sound pollution either, as their presence on roads is hardly audible. The question that comes to my mind – and of course, to many minds on the same wavelength too - however, is about the way these charging points get electricity when the EV market booms. Then all of a sudden, I heard a mild outburst from someone at the top of the motor industry by complete coincidence that fully resonated with my curiosity – and that of many. The well-admired American philosopher, Ralph Waldo Emerson, in one of his famous essays, Self-Reliance, shed light on the mysterious psychic phenomenon like this about 200 year ago: “To believe your own thought, to believe that what is true for you in your private heart is true for all … That is genius,” he wr

Oil price goes up as EIA forecasts a decline in oil inventories

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    The EIA, the Energy Information Administration of the US, once again proved its undisputed influence in determining the trend of crude oil price by announcing that the US crude oil stocks has declined. In inverse proportion to the forecast, the oil price is on the increase significantly relative to what it was a few months ago. Although there are plenty of factors to worry about that stem from the third wave of the pandemic, the recovery of oil price did not show any sign of being dampened by the bad news. It is true that the hope of vaccines against the pandemic is rising across the world. Simultaneously, people are aware of the logistical challenges faced by the governments when it comes to distribution. Besides, it will take months before subjecting the whole population to a vaccination drive en masse and measure the combined success. In this context, it may not just be the progress made on vaccination front that boosted the oil price; the most likely factor could be t

Bitcoin smashes through $20k barrier

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In a further sign of economic recovery, the value of Bitcoin moved above $20,000 for the first time since its inception, taking the cryptocurrency enthusiasts to a new level of excitement.  Invented in 2008 by a Japanese inventor, whose true identity is still shouded in mystery, it made a remarkable jouney defying its critics and doom-mongers. More on that is here: Bitcoint above $20,000

Oil price shows remakable resilience despite negative factors

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Despite the usual negative factors weighing heavily on the price of crude oil, we haven’t seen a price crash, forecast by some analysts in the energy realm. The OPEC+ - at least some members – have second thoughts about the production cuts; the US oil inventories have increased, according to the EIA, the Energy Information Administration; the US and most of the Western Europe are on the brink of yet another major lockdown; oil demand, even in Asia where it used to remain relatively strong, has weakened recently; there are hopes that Iran and the US will start talking again with the former making preparations for oil export in the near future; the demand for jet fuel shows no sign of recovering. In short, the supply side of the equation, in all probability, is going to go up while demand may remain at the current level – at least, up until the spring, next year. Of course, Brent crude hit above $50.00 recently, before falling back; WTI has been rising too. The prices remain above

Oil prices show signs of recovery despite strict lockdowns

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  The oil price shows signs of recovery despite the obvious impact on it due to new lockdowns in Europe. The lockdown are relatively strict and there are reports of new variants of the Coronavirus; whether it’s a milder form of the same virus remains to be seen. On a positive note, the Asian demand for oil continues unabated, apart from insignificant fluctuations from time to time. Hopes of both vaccines and the evolution of the virus for a milder form, perhaps, will keep the oil price in the present range, without plunging into the levels that we saw at the beginning of the year.

European lockdowns: the need of innovative ideas for the airline industry

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  As major European nations stare into the abyss of yet another lockdown, the ghost of economic consequences creates disturbing ripples in every sector. The demand for oil – and to some extent, gas too – will definitely suffer and in inverse proportion to the decline, the crude oil stocks will go up in the coming weeks. The US crude oil stocks rose by over 1.6 million last week and it dampened somewhat the oil price rally that we had been witnessing up until then. The hope of the silver bullet, an effective vaccine, however, raised the veil of gloom, while giving oil price a boost to counter the negative effect of inventory build-up. What worries investors is not the onset of yet another lockdown; it’s the alarming news that the scientists have found a new strain of the virus. “Will the existing vaccines work against a new strain?” is the key question that arises in the wake of this news. We know that viruses evolve – perhaps, in order not to kill its habitat, the host. In this

US oil rig count falls - oil price dropped too!

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  The US rig count, a reliable indicator to reflect the scale of demand of crude oil, went down during the last few days, despite showing a recovery since the peak of the first wave of the pandemic. It has gone down from 323 to 258, according to Baker Hughes rig count data – a significant drop. During the same period, the US inventories also signalled a significant build-up.   This may indicate a global decline in demand of oil. Even in India, there is a drop in demand, despite the trend being the exact opposite a few months ago. As a consequence, the oil price that showed signs of strong recovery became static again, after hitting above $45 a barrel. Oil producing countries that rely on the commodity to balance their books finally breathed a sigh of relief with the rising crude oil prices. Qatar, the tiny Gulf state, for instance, estimated $9.4 billion budget deficit next year – the largest since 2017, when its neighbours fell out with it and imposed travel restrictions – e

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