Posts

Reviving the 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal: there will be 7th round of talks

Image
  According to the Iranian Deputy Foreign Minister, Abbas Araghchi, all Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) agreement documents were almost ready. He said it on Sunday after the end of the sixth round of talks. He, however, added, “but it requires decisions that mainly have to be made by the negotiating sides in Vienna,” in the same breath. The Iranians were pretty optimistic than ever before about the possibility of striking a deal during the last round of talks, the sixth, since the new US administration took the reins of power. Mohammad Javad Zarif, the outgoing Iranian foreign minister, for instance, was in an upbeat mood in the aftermath of the presidential elections about the success at the discussions in Vienna. Judging by the moods of both sides and reading between the lines of their communique, it’s clear that signatories have begun exercising flexibility not to let the deal collapse. When the head of the Iranian delegation says that the ‘document’ is almost

Psychological booster for crude oil markets: covid-19 infections in India in decline

Image
  The crude oil price dipped on Thursday and it was solely attributed to the weaker-than-expected US economic data that in turn made the US dollar stronger. The mood in the markets was not lifted up, even after a relatively successful summit between President Biden and President Putin in Switzerland; that was not something expected either – at least by the media. The talks over the JCPOA, 2015 Iran nuclear deal, meanwhile, are continuing in Vienna, Austria, in its sixth round and the Iranian delegation was much more hopeful about an agreement yesterday, as never before. This could have been a trigger to push crude oil price downward on Thursday, something that is still continuing on Friday. Both WTI and Brent went down by 1.32% and 1.572% respectively before the markets closed on Thursday. Despite the palpable uncertainty in the crude oil markets, there is a glimmer of hope for the battered Indian economy: the Coronavirus infections are in decline and so are the deaths. Sin

Significant Crude Oil Inventory Draw Predicted: oil price keeps rising

Image
  The API, American Petroleum Institute, in its latest forecast, indicates a significant crude oil draw for the week ending June 10. The same from the EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, is yet to be released for the same period. The API figure, 8.573 million barrels, is more than twice what the analysts were expecting for the same period – 3.29 million barrels. Although the forecasts by the analysts and the API used to diverge somewhat occasionally, in the previous week the figures came very close; the forecasts by the API and those of the EIA too used to diverge from each other on some occasions. The inventory draws by the EIA in the recent past clearly show that the demand of crude oil is on the rise steadily; its consistency may have given fresh hopes for the beleaguered oil producers to be back in the business with a high degree of certainty, having been battered for months due to falling oil price. The cumulative draw of US crude oil inventories stand at 22 mil

Rate of oil price surge: will the politicians get involved again to cap the price?

Image
  The price of crude oil is steadily rising and its ceiling, if any, is anybody’s guess at present, because getting a perfect prediction by analysing past data, by means of an Excel spreadsheet or the ‘best’ available ML algorithm, is like predicting the exact date and ferocity of the first Atlantic hurricane. The unpredictable nature of outbreaks of the Coronavirus across the world, even in places that we thought it was under control, clearly shows endless data-crunching can become redundant unless we identify every single factor that determines a given event. The prediction of the price of crude oil in the international markets is no different. Who can predict the exact price of crude oil in two weeks’ time – with or without a model? This is the nightmare faced by both analysts and traders alike in the volatile commodity markets. When the price of crude oil rises at this rate, the oil producers are understandably come under immense pressure and they in turn look for a scapego

Iran forms trilaterals, and quadrilaterals with its neighours to woo investment in energy sector

Image
  As the talks to revive the 2015 nuclear deal enters the sixth round in Vienna, Austria, involving the signatories to the deal, Iran does not seem to have   lost its hope for the sanctions being lifted, despite the mixed signals that come from Tehran. There are plenty of indications to support the idea that Iran does want to see an end to the international sanctions so that it can once again become a serious player in the international energy markets. The production of crude oil, as shown by many reliable sources, for instance, has not suffered due to uncertainty over the final outcome of the talks in Vienna; on the contrary, Iran has been ramping up the production for months. The Iranian ambassador to India, meanwhile, has offered India one of its key ports in the Persian Gulf as a base for the strategic oil reserves of the latter and a standalone gas pipeline. Iran has been instrumental in forming ‘quadrilaterals’ and ‘trilateral’ with its immediate neighbours, numbering fou

India sees normalcy returning; rise in oil price causes a political stir, though

Image
  India, having been through one of the deadliest outbreaks of the Coronavirus in the world, is finally seeing a steady decline, both in the rate of infections and deaths. In proportion to the encouraging news, the commercial activities are slowly limping back to normal, despite being nowhere near what it was before the pandemic. As the economic activities pick up the momentum, the multiple rises in fuel price at the pumps are causing frustration at many levels of the government; not only can it skew the recovery path, but also can cause an inevitable political stir across the vast country – when it can least afford one. Although the price hike is in direct proportion to the rise in price in crude oil in the international markets, those who look at it from a political prism stubbornly refuse to believe that it is the case; they try to associate it with ‘bad’ policy decisions. The rise in oil price is causing political ripples in the rest of Asia too. A modest increase in oil pr

Oil prices rise again following the false dawn: 500 sanctions against Iran, yet to be lifted!

Image
  The crude oil price fell for a brief period yesterday at the news that some sanctions against former Iranian officials had been lifted by the US. Once the fog surrounding the development started clearing, the momentum of upward trend continued, though; the US simply played it down by saying the move was just routine. The reaction to the news by the crude oil markets simply shows the significance of the Iranian factor in determining the current oil price. Despite the assurance by the OPEC+ that the arrival of Iranian oil into the international markets will be orderly and transparent, the misplaced anxieties in the markets show no sign of abating. If the reaction in the oil markets in response to a minor development such as sanctions against a few individuals being lifted was like what we saw yesterday, we can just imagine the would-be reaction in the event of all sanctions being lifted; it’s no exaggeration; the market reaction, in all probability, will go seismic. The signato

Rising oil price is becoming a hot political issue - globally

Image
  Oil prices at the pumps are on the rise, both in the developed world and those in the developing world. It’s almost universal in proportion to the recent rise in crude oil prices. The immediate impact on the economies in the developed world, however, is more significant and there are signs that it’s becoming a hot political issue. In India, for instance, the rise in oil price is felt across many segments of the Indian society and the government is under fire for not dealing with it. The Indian government, meanwhile, without denying that it is the case, blame it on the global crude oil prices. The opposition, however, blames the rise in oil price on government taxes. As the Covid-19 infections are on decline to a manageable level, the focus of the government of India has been on reviving the battered economy. India is the third largest crude oil importer of the world and the Indian government wants its suppliers in the Middle East take that on board, when it comes to the p

Vienna talks on 2015 Iran nuclear deal have hit a snag: crude oil markets to turn bullish again

Image
  The talks on reviving the JCPOA, 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, appear to have run into insurmountable challenges, despite the optimism that has been growing during the past few weeks. Anthony Blinken, the Secretary of the State of the US, poured cold water on the possibility of a breakthrough on Monday: “It’s unclear whether Iran is willing and prepared to do what it needs to do to come back into compliance,” said he while speaking to lawmakers on the US foreign policy. Mr Blinken even implied that possibility of an agreement being reached with Iran may be months away – at best! Iran, however, did not agree with the top US diplomat; Iran says it is complying with the terms of the JCPOA. The latest US position was made clear after the IAEA, the International Atomic Energy Agency, vent its frustration at Iran for not providing it with vital information: “Iran has provided no new information in relation to one location, has not answered any of the Agency’s questions nor provided an

Oil price falls on Monday on account of negative sentiment in the markets

Image
  The price of crude oil suddenly fell on Monday, ending the two-week surge for inexplicable reasons, despite the multitude of positive factors lurking on the horizon. The growth of all major economies is improving with the sentiment almost at the pre-pandemic level: China, for instance, recorded 25.6% increase in its export during the first quarter; in Europe and the US, vehicular traffic is back on roads; airline industry are active again; the vaccination rollout is going ahead full steam and there is a significant reduction in deaths and hospital admissions. In India, meanwhile, the normalcy slowly returns with the rate of infections – and deaths – coming down in a moderate way; India is still the world’s third largest importer of crude oil. Yet, the oil price once again fell defying the expectations. Brent crude broke through the barrier, $ 70 a battel, earlier on Monday, only to fall back below it. Only in 2018, did oil price reach this level. Of course, the investors are

Crude Oil Price: OPEC+ members are anxious about the arrival of Iranian oil - top Russian oil executive

Image
  Although the crude oil price rose this week, the anxiety over flooding the markets with Iranian oil still has the potential to rattle the sector in the next few days. The signatories to the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as 2015 Iran nuclear deal, are going to meet up again in Vienna, the Austrian capital, next week, after a 10-day break for consultations with their respective governments. They already have had five rounds of talks with the anticipated breakthrough not being in the offing; they, however, have ironed out many thorny issues and the optimism at the negotiation table had never been higher. Iranians, meanwhile, feel that some regional powers do not want a deal being struck; Iranian media identifies the ‘saboteurs’ as ‘West Asian regimes’. The success of reaching an agreement in the talks in the next round, however, is strong: the Iranian rhetoric that we witnessed at the beginning of the talks is on the wane; they have opened up he diplomati

Saudi Arabia raises oil price for Asia, citing demand outstriping supply

Image
  Saudi Aramco, the state owned oil giant, reversed its decision to lower the price of crude oil for Asia and increased the price instead for July by 20cents. Last month, Saudi Arabia reduced the price of crude oil for the same region where 60% of its core customers are in as a gesture of goodwill: the region in question is still battling with a catastrophic surge in Covid-19 infections, with India, the third largest consumer of the commodity in the world, being the worst hit; the pandemic situation in Japan, Malaysia and a few in the region is far from over. In a surprise move, Aramco has not raised the price of crude oil for the US, the world’s largest producer of the fuel. Saudi Arabia’s decision is attributed the surging demand of crude oil, especially in the US and Europe; the OPEC+ believes that the demand will outstrip the supply and hence producers want to cash in on it. There may be another factor, though. Iran and the West are going into the sixth phase of discussion on the 2

Oil price rises with talks over 2015 Iranian nuclear deal progresses at snail's pace

Image

Saudi Energy Minister pokes fun at speculators: "Don't predict the unpredictable!"

Image
  The monthly OPEC+ meeting ended on Tuesday without a major shift in production policy of the organisation; the members agreed to go ahead with the planned increase in the output for June and July. The price of crude oil, Brent, meanwhile, hit above the psychologically significant mark, $70, on Tuesday despite the outcome of the OPEC+ ministerial meeting not being clear. There were plenty of speculations about the possible last-minute policy changes on social media, though; nothing materialised in the end. Although the members stated that they did not take up the issue of the revival of 2015 Iranian nuclear deal and its potential impact on the supply / price pair, no adjustment was made with regard to the crude oil output beyond July. The members of the OPEC+, however, appear to be cautious about Iran’s entry into the markets; Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman, the Saudi Energy Minister, meanwhile, said on Wednesday, that oil producers must remain ‘extremely cautious’, citing the un

Oirl price rises: Iran's entry into markets vs OPEC+ outcome

Image
  Crude oil price has been on a rising trend today since the markets opened for trading, with analysts being all eyes and ears at the virtual conference of the OPEC+. With the feasibility of Iran’s legitimate entry into the oil markets weighing heavily on the supply side of the equation, the anticipated outcome of the meeting may shed some light on the progress of the talks in Vienna on 2015 Iranian nuclear deal too. If Iran haggles over its right to increase production, against the wishes of the most of the members of the OPEC+, it is an indication of possible breakthrough in the next few days during the talks on the JCPOA, also known as 2015 nuclear deal in Vienna. According to Iranian negation team in Vienna, both sides   of the signatories to the JCPOA have faced stumbling blocks in pursuing   a deal; in today’s OPEC+ meeting, Iran may find that what it faces in Vienna is not the only stumbling block when it comes to reviving its crude oil trade – to the level it desired. T

Crude Oil: latest news