Crude Oil Futures

  The price of crude oil is back on decline, having been on the rise for about three weeks. As of 13:00 GMT on Tuesday, the prices of WTI and Brent were at $77.94 and $81.97 respectively.  Although some analysts were quick to predict a surge in oil prices due to the attacks carried out by Israel on Saturday, on Hodeidah port in Yemen, targetting oil facilities, it did not materialise. On the contrary, the prices of oil went down, recording that of WTI, below $80. The fossil fuel markets, at present, are in need of a sustainable catalyst. The combination of hyping-up the conflicts in the Middle East and the exaggerated impact of them on the energy markets, certainly is not one of them; its perceived significance appeared to have run its course, judging by the current fluctuations of the oil prices; it slowly borders on irrelevance.  On political front, meanwhile, when President Trump received a hero's welcome at the recently-concluded RNC, Republican National Convention, having surv

The slow growth rate of China's GDP, around 5% according to the latest forecasts,  coupled with the falling gas prices, is clearly inhibiting the potential rise of global oil prices.  China, the world's top oil importer and second largest consumer after the US, enjoyed four decades of robust growth that used to be close to 10% - the envy of the developed world. The latest data from China's Bureau of Statistics, the world's second largest economy is heading towards its own new 'normal' - a relatively modest growth around 5%. Although China still manages to keep its economy growing despite many headwinds, the concerns on many fronts eclipse the growth picture: its frosty relationships with the West, uneasy diplomatic relations with the neighbours, especially around the South China Sea and of course, its troubled neighbourly relationship with India, the world's third largest consumer of oil, to name but a few. The latest concern over China's growth comes in

  Iranians elected a new president on Friday in a run-off election, who has pledged to take the country out of international isolation while promising women more rights that include relaxing the strict dress code - the compulsory hijab-wearing in public. Dr Masoud Pezeshkian, the president elect, aged 69, is a former heart surgeon, who had been a minister of health before, in a reformist government from 2001 to 2005. In the first round of the presidential election that was held on June 28 due to the unexpected death of the former president, Ibrahim Raisi, in a helicopter crash, Dr Pezeshkian marginally won the race while beating Saeed Jalili, his nearest rival and a conservative hardliner, who promised to uphold the status quo.  During the heated political debates in the runup to the election, Dr Pezeshkian criticised Iran's confrontational dealings with the West that resulted in hyperinflation and an economy in ruins; he accused the previous hard-line-regimes of leaving Iran in a

  The price of crude oil slightly increased as the weekend approached, something that has been attributed to the rising tension in the Middle East between Israel and Hezbollah, the Shite military group in Lebanon. As of 18:00 GMT, the prices of WTI and Brent were at $81.58 and $86.46 respectively. The price of LNG, liquified natural gas, meanwhile, was at $2,60. The US crude stocks, against all odds, rose again during the last week, deviating from the draw that was reported a week ago. It raises the prospect of feeble demand that has been the case for months; this is rather unexpected in the US, the world's top consuming nation of the fossil fuels, despite the onset of the summer driving season. The fact that the price of oil slightly went up despite the rising US crude stocks has been attributed to the rising tension between Israel and Hezbollah; the northern border between Israel and Lebanon has been a hotbed for hostilities involving both sides since Israel launched a full-scale

  Data and Image: credit - IEA IEA (2024), Annual oil demand growth, 2011-2025, IEA, Paris The Paris-based International Energy Agency, IEA, put a damper yet again on the perceived demand for oil in 2024 and 2025, in stark contrast to that of the OPEC+, the Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries plus Russia. According to IEA’s latest report on the subject, released in June, 2024, the growth will be a fairly modest 960 kbpd - 960 thousand barrels per day in 2024; it is a drop of 100 kbpd from IEA’s own previous estimate. The IEA cites a weaker demand in China for the drop in demand in this year. China’s PMI, the key indicator that reflects the manufacturing activity, for instance, has been in decline for a few successive months, even below the psychologically sensitive 50%, the threshold; it went above 50% in March, only to come down again in April - and then, to continue the decline into May. It is no secret that the oil producers pin their hopes on China and India in or

  Palpable anxieties in the oil markets The price of oil has been down for the fourth successive week with Brent hitting below $80 again. As of 18:00 GMT on Friday, the prices of WTI and Brent recorded $75.53 and $79.62 respectively.  The long-awaited meeting of the OPEC+, meanwhile, went ahead on Sunday, June 2, with some members opted for being online and the rest meeting in person. The members, although put on a brave front, tentatively agreed to extend the  production cuts beyond 2024 so that the dwindling prices can be shored up. It, however, appears to be easier said than done. At present, the OPEC+ cuts its production by 5.58 million bpd - barrels per day: there are 3.36 million bpd production cuts that were due to expire at the  end of 2024; in addition, 2.22 million bpd production cuts by 8 members of the cartel that were supposed to expire at the end of June. The OPEC+ on Sunday 2, June agreed to extend the production cuts of  3.36 million bpd by another year - until the end

  In the ascending order of anxiety, the OPEC+ has been forced to accumulate a growing range of bad news in recent times for its decision makers to digest. In this context, the latest manufacturing data from China hardly comes as a catalyst for optimism, as far as the oil cartel is concerned. China's manufacturing PMI, the key indicator that reflects its production activity, has fallen yet again in May, indicating a significant contraction: it has come down to 49.5 in May, from 50.4 in April; the threshold is 50% and anything below it, is a contraction in the manufacturing sector. The disappointing news from the world's second largest economy comes in the wake of the OPEC+ holding its meeting, scheduled to be held on June 1 in person, online - all of a sudden with no convincing explanation. On June 1, there was a sudden change of decision to meeting in person in Vienna, though. Prior to that, there were reports that Kazakhstan, a member of the OPEC+ from the Central Asia, wante

  Image Credit: Times of India Javier Milei, the flamboyant, Argentinian president, who came to power in December  by performing a series of unorthodox, political stunts, appears to be determined to assign a range of controversial tasks to his most striking political symbol during the campaign - the chainsaw. With an administrative equivalent of a chainsaw, Mr Milei is already hacking his way through the  intricate, bureaucratic woods in his native Argentina, implying nothing was off-limit.   Mr Milei, to begin with, is planning to lay off over 70,000 government employees, has frozen public projects and and devalued Argentinian peso by more than 50%. To his credit, they appear to be working in his favour, at least for now; the inflation has been slowing down for four months in a row, but it is still high; Argentina, up until recently, had the world's highest inflation - a staggering 280%.  In 2025, if all goes well, economists believe that the inflation could be brought down to ar

  With just six months to go before the presidential election in the fall, the Biden administration of the US appears to be taking the task of taming the inflation much more seriously than it did in the past few months. In this context, the announcement made by the DoE, Department of Energy, on May 21, Tuesday, does not come as a surprise: it announced that 1 million barrels of gasoline from the NGSR, Northeast Gasoline Supply Reserve, will be sold off in time for the peak travel period between the Memorial Day and July 4; gasoline will be sold in batches of 100, 000 barrels,  each.  “By strategically releasing this reserve in between Memorial Day and July 4th, we are ensuring sufficient supply flows to the tri-state and northeast at a time hardworking Americans need it the most,”  said  the US Energy Secretary Jennifer Granholm  in a statement. The announcement by the DoE, coincided with the latest US crude inventory data from the API, American Petroleum Institute; there was a signifi