Showing posts from May 16, 2021

Oil price: crude oil markets ride out the short-lived volatilty

  Investors and traders alike could breathe a sigh of relief by the afternoon, yesterday, as the crude oil markets found its equilibrium again, having been through a short period of volatility, the previous day – finally. It’s either the news of the sanctions against Iran being lifted or the report from the IEA, the International Energy Agency that came as a bolt from the blue, which was responsible for the mayhem in the markets; some analysts believe it was the combination of both. By afternoon on Friday, however, the indices were back in the green and they continue to do so, extending well into the weekend. As the conflict in the Middle East died down in parallel to the news that came from Iran with regard to the lifting the sanctions against the country, the markets in general got the much-needed boost to spring back to action. Although there was no official communique about a new deal on the JCPOA, 2015 Iranian nuclear deal, the news from both camps that comes in dribs and

Crude oil price: charts turn green from red in less than 24 hours with strong recovery

  After a day of market mayhem, crude oil price reached where it should be today, much to the delight of the investors in the sector. After the Iranian president, Hassan Rouhani announced that a deal is reached with what he called, ‘world powers’, oil price tumbled yesterday, coming down by more than 2%; it made a small recovery later, though. The indications are that Iran and the signatories to the JCPOA, also known as 2015 Iran Nuclear Deal, have reached an agreement, subjected to ironing out a few thorny issues. Since the parties involved reached this milestone defying all odds, it is almost irreversible at least for the next few years. By coincidence, the deal was reached when Hamas and Israel agreed to an Egypt-brokered peace deal. When the talks entered into the 5the phase, Iran was careful not to rock the boat in light of the war between Hamas and Israel, while limiting its anger just to criticise the Jewish state while maintaining its sympathy towards Hamas. It is no

Oil price tumbles on the news of a breakthrough in 2015 Iranian nuclear deal

  Crude oil prices took a dive on Thursday when Hassan Rouhani, the Iranian president signalled that world powers have agreed to lift the sanctions against Iran. Although President Rouhani did not spell out the details of the deal, the markets that had been edgy throughout the day following the bombshell dropped by the IEA, the International Energy Agency, it was a bit of the last straw. Oil futures fell over 2% in New York and the oil charts suddenly turned red, having been on bullish streaks for weeks. President Rouhani admitted that the signatories to the JCPOA, 2015 Iran nuclear deal, were still ironing out some issues; his mood, however, did stem from a solid foundation of optimism. Analysts did not expect a reaction of this magnitude from the investors at the news; they were aware that Iran, a key member of the OPEC+, would not damage the current price level by flooding the markets with crude oil – just to make up for what it lost during the past three years. On a posit

Reviving 2015 Iran nuclear deal: the parties seem to be tantalisingly close to a deal

  As the signatories to the JCPOA, 2015 Iran nuclear deal, meet in the 5 th round of talks in Vienna in order to resolve the lingering thorny issues, the head of the Iranian delegation sounded optimism on Wednesday. It is a sentiment shared by Iran’s government-controlled media too; Russia, an ally of Iran, is hopeful that a deal could be struck in the next few days. The fact that the parties involved agreed in principle to sit down, itself, is a major achievement; who would have thought a dialogue between the US and Iran, even if the involvement of intermediaries was a key factor in breaking the ice, last year? Since both sides of the deep chasm insist on this being the last round of talks, they cannot afford to let it be a monumental failure; that’s why both sides are determined as never before to iron out the significant differences. If the talks fail, the stakes are high for both sides: as far as the US is concerned, it cannot let Iran keep enriching uranium unhindered for

Oil Price: disappearing glut and strong demand to keep the price at a sustainable level

  The IEA, the International Energy Agency, caused something more than a stir in the oil markets yesterday when it said the kind of things that the investors in the sector should pursue if they really want to see net-zero-goal by 2050; it says this year should be the last year for investing in the oil sector! Of course, it has come under immense criticism for this aspiring goal and the corresponding deadline, which most in the sector, believe as a line drawn in the sand. Despite the debatable ambition, the demand for crude oil is growing as the US and some parts of Europe are reaping the benefits of the accelerated vaccine rollout; the industries are back at work in full swing and vehicles are back on roads. Although the grim situation in India, exacerbated by Cyclone Tauktae, shows no sign of a respite, the investors are hopeful it will be back to normal in due course, as did in the US at the beginning of the year; on its part, India is also trying to mimic the US and the UK in

Arrival of Iranian oil to the markets: investors show no panic - for a reason

  Crude oil markets are bracing themselves for the arrival of Iranian oil in proportion to the growing positive sentiments, both in Vienna and Tehran about a potential, mutually-acceptable solution to the JCPOA, 2015 Iranian nuclear deal. The talks that entered the 5ths phase had been going on for weeks with mounting challenges; there were even diplomatic whispers about an imminent breakthrough, about a week ago. The prospect, however, had a setback when a conflict between Israel and Hamas broke out, a few days ago. Although Iran, a sworn enemy of Israel, made its feeling known on international stage, it refrained from making any move to fan the raging conflict. Nor could it let masses to fill the streets for protest in light of the Coronavirus infections. Although the US and Iran do not physically participate in the ongoing talks, it goes without saying who pulls the strings in shaping the ultimate outcome of the discussions; the intermediaries facilitate in bridging the signi

Talks over 2015 Iranian nuclear deal: did Gaza conflict raise a new roadblock against the progress?

  The talks over the JCPOA, the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as 2015 Iran nuclear deal, which have been making steady progress, appeared to have hit a roadblock all of a sudden. The signatories to the JCPOA and Iran already had four rounds of talks in Vienna. According to a senior Russian diplomat, who participates in the talks, although talks make progress, they are difficult. “So far so good but not easy. The work on restoration of the JCPOA continues, including during this weekend,” he summed up the mood of the ongoing discussions. He, however, was still hopeful about a breakthrough in May, which remains to be seen. Iranian media, meanwhile, questions the aptness of Vienna for having talks, citing Austria’s ‘insensitivity’ to the conflict in Gaza Strip: Austrian foreign ministry building erected the Israel flag in solidarity with the Jewish state and Iranian foreign minister cancelled the planned visit to Austria in protest against it last week. Despite

Revival of the 2015 Nuclear Deal: talks to continue in Vienna despite Middle East Tension

  Although Mohammad Javad Zarif, the Iranian foreign minister, avoided visiting Vienna, the Austrian capital, in protest against the European nation’s sympathy towards Israel, the team involved in talks to revive the JCPOA, the 2015 nuclear deal, are to stay in the city. Mr Zarif cited the display of Israeli flag on the top of a prominent Austrian building for the cancellation of his visit at the eleventh hour; he continued to visit Spain as planned, though. The Iranian team involved in the talks over the nuclear deal, however, are going to stay in Vienna and continue talks with the signatories of the JCPOA. They had fourth round of talks last week and the speculations were ripe that a breakthrough was imminent; the rising tension in the Middle East, however, may have hampered the progress in a few ways, as Iran is known as a strong supporter of the Hamas. In another development, Iranian media is very critical of major Sunni Arab states such as the UAE and Saudi Arabia for not

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