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Showing posts from April 4, 2021

What caused the downward trend in crude oil price?

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  Weekly crude oil price, that showed an upward trend up until March, 2021, has suddenly turned downward, when 3-point-moving averages are taken into account. This is not something that analysts anticipated, especially when there are clear signs of global demands going up. Moreover, in the US, there were strong indications of an economic recovery in proportion to the scale of the vaccine rollout. The increase in the crude oil output by the OPEC+, despite done under global political pressure, also signalled optimism on the part of the cartel that the demand would finally be on the rise. In addition, in China, the world’s second largest consumer, the economy shows a steady growth and the crude oil demand is going to go up at a faster rate in the coming months. The reliable positive news on multiple fronts clearly eclipsed the negative sentiment that stemmed from the upsurge of new Coronavirus infections in Europe and Asia. As a result, there was no dramatic fall in oil price, a r

Waiting in the Wings for Crude Oil: China and India to go on buying sprees, if sanctions against Iran are lifted

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  With the encouraging indications, both from the US and Iran, about the revival of 2015-nuclear-agreement, the world’s second and third consumers of the crude oil are pinning their hopes on a positive outcome in a matter of weeks, not many months. Both the US and Iran have shown some flexibility recently, clearly deviating from the rigid stance they maintained, a few months ago. Iran has been carrying on producing oil, even when the sanctions were in place – and President Trump was in office with the teeth-grinding determination to foil this attempt. The Iranians must have hoped that there would be a new administration in the White House in 2021. Into April 2021, Iran’s hope to revive its oil exports and ailing economy, battered by years of US-led sanctions, is more intense than ever before; so is the determination of its regional neighbours to cash in on the steady supply of crude, with the proximity to the source in their favour. There have been reports that China continued

EIA sees a brighter future for crude oil markets

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  The EIA, US Energy Information Administration, in its latest report depicts an optimistic picture about the future of the crude oil market. It certainly has helped the oil markets to keep up the momentum despite emerging challenges on many fronts. The resurgence of the Coronavirus pandemic is still a main concern, especially in Europe and India, the world’s third largest consumer of the crude oil. While making matters worse, the chasm between Saudi Arabia, the world’s largest crude oil exporter, and India is growing at an alarming speed with tit-for-tat moves in the offing. The EIA sees the arrival of more crude oil from the OPEC+ as an encouraging sign in order to meet the growing demand across the world. All in all, it sees a stable crude oil market with the price of oil revolving around $60, which helps producers get their feet back on the ground, having suffered from years of low oil prices.

Crude Oil Futures up for June: oil markets prove resilience is alive and kicking

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  Despite the rise in Covid-19 infections across the world, the accelerated pace of vaccinations managed to keep the optimism alive by keeping the old, dark days in 2020 behind us. In a positive, encouraging development, the crude oil futures for June have risen, causing a hole in the bubble of doom: WTI crude and Brent crude rose by $0.32 and $0.34 respectively, while generating a pulse of surprise in the crude oil markets. Of course, the latest economic data from the US is highly encouraging. The economic package unveiled by the new US administration is behind an unprecedented public spending boom that led to the latest forecast by the IMF full of optimism. In China, the world’s second largest economy, too, the latest data shows a steep growth. The US oil stockpiles, meanwhile, which fell during the week ending 26 March, are going to go down again, according to the latest forecast by the API, the American Petroleum Institute. On yet another positive note, the talks between

Rising Covid-19 Cases in India: this may affect the oil demand and the price

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    In India Covid-19 cases are rising rapidly and for the first time the Central government issued the warning that the next four weeks will be critical for the country. There is an exponential growth in the state of Maharashtra where the commercial capital is and New Delhi, the capital of the country. In response, the government says that accelerated testing and vaccine programmes are underway; India has been vaccinating its citizens for some time, yet infections are surging as most people just drop their guard, especially in social events and gatherings. Although state-wide lockdowns are not imminent, the authorities will run out of options if the rate of infections continues to rise at this rate. As an inevitable outcome, the road traffic will come down and demand for fossil fuels will follow the pattern in proportion; since the world’s third largest consumer imports 80% of oil, it will have an impact on the buyers, especially from the Middle East, as well. To make matt

Saudi Arabia raises oil price for Asia, reduces for Europe and the US - big blow to India

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  The disagreement between Saudi Arabia and India over the production cuts of crude oil took yet another twist today when the former increased the price of oil, known as OSP, the official selling price, for Asia while bringing it down for the US and Western Europe. The main customer block for Saudi Arabia has been in Asia for years; yet the price hike comes at a time when the region is struggling to cope with the multitude of consequences due to the pandemic; in addition, there are signs that the region may slide into a third wave of the pandemic. The kingdom, however, does not seem to be looking at the economic prospects of the region from the pandemic perspective. On the contrary, it sees the potential for growth in the region outweighs the hypothetical inhibitions against the same. Aramco, the world’s largest oil company that is owned by the Saudi government, plans to increase all grades of crude for Asia by 20 – 50 cents from May. The price of all grades to Western Europe w

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