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Showing posts from September 27, 2020

Oil Price: did markets over-react to President Trump's coronvirus infection?

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  Oil price slipped in the market on Thursday and likely to remain this way for the next few days. Some analysts were quick to relate the drop in price with President Trump being Covid-19 positive, despite the former happened a day before the latter’s official announcement about the infection. As for the coronavirus infection of the First Couple, there are no indications of a major health scare; they might not even have symptom of the disease. Yet, some media has begun analysing the worst case scenarios, which in turn affect the market sentiments. It looks like the markets responded to the news that OPEC increased the output by over a million barrels a day. The boost in production can be attributed to an increase in demand, a fact reflected by the EIA that said that the US oil inventories are on decline. In this context, it is not right to dub the dip in price as a correction, correction took place years before. As long as the US oil inventories are on decline, the oil price

Oil Price: Light at the End of the Tunnel, at last! EIA Inventory count does the trick again

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  Oil price is on the rise again at the news from the EIA, the US Energy Information Administration, that the US crude oil inventories are on decline for the past few weeks and it remains to be consistent for a significant period of time. That means the US road traffic is returning to normal at a steady pace and factories are gearing up to get their output right. There was no knee-jerk reaction from the markets to the first presidential debate between President Trump and his rival, Joe Biden. Neither did the latest opinion polls that usually are not in favour of the incumbent. Although the rise in price is a relief for weary investors, it’s far from certain when it actually will go up to $50 a barrel in the current circumstances. In this context, most of the OPEC members will still struggle to balance their books. The hierarchy of the OPEC members may have understood the bitter truth that strategy of production cuts in order to shore up oil price is easier said than done; most

Oil price gains stability: this is a key factor!

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  Oil price regained its position just over $40, despite the gloomy forecast about a prolonged bearish trend in the light of the second wave of the coronavirus pandemic. It’s undeniable that the infections are on the rise, especially in Europe and to some extent, in the rest of the world too. Unlike during the first wave, however, the death rate remains very low and it is universal. As governments turn to strict preventive measures at the expense of certain civil liberties that we used to take for granted, the former appear to be working in keeping the menace at bay. For instance, in Australia, the outbreak is dying down and the government is easing the tough measures in proportion to the success in controlling it. In short, the world has accepted the reality and learned to live with it; it’s just a case of adjusting to the New Normal. Unlike during the first lockdown, we still see cars on the roads and people commuting to work; the schools are open. These facts indicate th

Will the oil price come out of the bearish territory? The answer is, 'firm yes.'

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  Oil price is in bearish territory again, perhaps owing to the fresh outbreaks of coronavirus infections in Europe. The new infection rate in the US, the world’s biggest consumer of oil, still poses a serious worry as far as oil markets are concerned. China, the second largest consumer has kept the virus threat at bay and India, the third largest consumer still fights the pandemic on many fronts. The oil price, however, was not subjected to the wild fluctuations that we saw when this week, when the world’s second or third largest consumer of oil grappled with the disease. Markets, however, reacted quickly when Europe showed that the crisis is far from over as far as their major town and cities are concerned. The trend indicates it was just the collective sentiment rather than fundamentals that caused the uncertainty. On factual front, however, there are encouraging signs to the contrary. The EIA, US Energy Information Administration, consistently indicates that the US oil in

Crude Oil: latest news