Despite earlier cautious optimism, significant disagreements persist. Iran demands the lifting of crippling sanctions, while the US insists on a complete halt to uranium enrichment, a condition Iran deems a "non-starter."
The US position on enrichment remains a point of contention. While an Axios report suggested the US might allow enrichment for power generation, President Trump later dismissed this, stating he would "not allow Iran to enrich uranium to any level." This firm stance from both sides raises concerns about the potential failure of the talks.
Uranium ore, once dug up from mines, undergoes a multi-stage transformation to become enriched uranium. First, it's mined and then processed into yellowcake, a uranium oxide concentrate. Iran possesses three such mining sites, with the one in Yazd province being particularly significant.
Next, the yellowcake is converted into uranium hexafluoride (UF6) gas, which is essential for the enrichment process, whether for power generation or nuclear weapons. UF6 contains two uranium isotopes: U-235 and U-238. Enrichment involves increasing the concentration of the fissile U-235 isotope by separating it from the heavier U-238, primarily through gas centrifugation.
This is where the core disagreement between Iran and Western nations lies: the level of enrichment. For peaceful power generation, uranium is typically enriched to just 3.7% to 5% U-235. However, to create nuclear bombs, enrichment must exceed 90% U-235.
Western concerns stem from the fact that Iran's enrichment level has reportedly reached 60%. This raises alarms because experts indicate that reaching 20% enrichment represents a significant portion of the total effort required to achieve 90% weapons-grade uranium.
Consequently, if Iran's ambitions extend beyond peaceful uses, it could potentially reach the weapons-grade threshold relatively quickly, especially given its existing substantial inventory of 60% enriched uranium.
For use in power plants, the 3.7% enriched uranium is further processed into uranium dioxide powder, pressed into fuel pellets, and then loaded into fuel rods – a process known as fuel fabrication.
For use in power plants, the 3.7% enriched uranium is further processed into uranium dioxide powder, pressed into fuel pellets, and then loaded into fuel rods – a process known as fuel fabrication.
As the talks drags on without a clear settlement in the offing, Benjamin Netanyahu, the Israeli prime minister, has started complaining that Iran could produce 10 nuclear bombs with their existing enriched uranium. He wants to take military action against nuclear sites in Iran, but President Trump still exercises caution despite coming under heavy pressure from his own Republican stalwarts and of course, Israel. He, however, intermittently raises the stakes by saying military response is still on the table.#
In light of the latest development, the price of crude oil and LNG, liquified natural gas, rose on Monday and continue to be at an elevated level, despite the evidence of market saturation by the commodity.
As of 10:30 GMT, WTI and Brent recorded $63.01 and $65.24 respectively.
The daring attack launched by Ukraine inside Russia, meanwhile, spooked the oil market too: on one hand, Russia is a main oil producer in the OPEC+; on the other hand, if Russia choses to respond militarily - and in proportion - it is going to be a major escalation that can reach a dangerous level, if NATO countries are in President Putin's crosshairs.
All in all, the volatility at geopolitical level rather than the usual demand-supply mechanism determines the current energy prices and judging by the latest developments, it appears to remain that way for a long time.
