Oil markets are stable despite the mixed signals over 2015 Iranian nuclear deal

 

Oil price Tuesday

The volatility in the crude oil markets, which we saw in the aftermath of President Hassan Rouhani’s public disclosure that the sanctions against Iran would be lifted, has since subsided; the prices of crude oil are in equilibrium with relatively mild fluctuations.

Since the politics in the Middle East is inextricably linked to the price of the commodity, analysts always keenly watch the unpredictable political developments to gauge the evolving mood; it’s something even the best Machine Learning process developed for sentiment analysis cannot accurately predict.

At present, the talks that go in Vienna, Austria, in order to revive the JCPOA, Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, also known as 2015 Iran nuclear deal, blow hot and cold over about hopes of an amicable agreement.

As the signatories start the fifth round of talks today, which both sides say to be the final, analysts hope an agreement will be reached at the end; the probability of success is fairly high, despite the ultra conservatives in Iran expressing reservations; some brands the influence of them as a part of the shadow of sabotage – with tentacles extending far beyond Iran.

Since the outgoing President Rouhani of Iran wants to end his term on a positive note, while bringing his country back from the cold, his team will exercise maximum flexibility to strike a deal.

The Iranian oil sector, meanwhile, has been hoping for that day for over three years while ramping up the production to kick start the exports back as soon as it gets the global green light.

Lingering worries of the key players in the region such as the UAE, Saudi Arabia and above all, Israel, however, remain intact; Iran is on their radar – whether a deal is struck or not.

The teams in Vienna went past another milestone in the marathon of talks yesterday when Iran agreed to extend by one month an agreement allowing the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) to keep surveillance cameras at nuclear sites.

In Iran, meanwhile, the Guardian Council has approved the names of seven candidates for the forthcoming presidential election in June, barring some prominent figures such as the former president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad from taking part; Mr Ahmadinejad hit back by saying that he would boycott the election in protest.

All in all, by the end of the weekend, we may be able to get an idea about the direction that the talks move and the progress they make, if any,  in Vienna in light of the complex Iranian internal politics.

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