OPEC+ sees over 17.6% global growth in the next 25 years

Global Oil prices have tumbled, yet the OPEC+ sees the light at the end of the tunnel, after revising its previous gloomy forecast for the first quarter, 2022; the cartel sees an increase in demand for the period, despite the risk of global spread of the Omicron variant of the Coronavirus.

Its latest forecast clearly shows that the growth of demand for the crude oil in the next few years ahead: in the next 25 years, says the OPEC+, the global demand will grow by 17.6%.

In the OECD countries, however, the data shows a decline in growth by 7.6% that could be accounted for by the anticipated growth of the renewables.

In the non-OECD countries, on the other hand, there is a clear growth of 25.5%; it means, the fossil fuels are not going to go away as far as the majority of the global population is concerned, despite the ambitious net zero targets.

In the US, meanwhile, the crude oil inventories continue to fall at a modest phase, clearly owing to the fall of crude oil prices recently. The latest data, released by the API, American Petroleum Institute, shows a drop of over 800,000 barrels during the past week.

It indicates that the higher the crude oil price, the lower the demand as far as the recent US crude inventories are concerned; the rising inflation in the US, the highest in 40 years, in these circumstances, does not help the crude oil markets find its right bearings in the shadows of uncertainties.

The rising inflation is affecting the other countries as well like the plague, which in turn makes people cautious, when it comes to spending. That is why it is important for the OPEC+ to listen the grievances of the global consumers, especially when the world is grappling with a once-in-a-century pandemic.

In normal times, OPEC+ has a right to let the markets determine the crude oil prices by factors associated with demand and supply alone; this, however, is not a normal time; in an extraordinary time, every global body has to exercise flexibility and the OPEC+ is no exception.

It goes without saying that any long-term damage to the global economy is going to boomerang on the OPEC+ - in the end.

When the pandemic hit last year, the governments across the world came up with ad-hoc solutions in order to save the corresponding populations: in the West, for instance, the governments launched furlough schemes and employee-support schemes, in addition to countless welfare measures; even in the less fortunate countries, the governments did their best to alleviate the hardships.

As a result of these measures, there was no news about famines breaking out, even in the regions where the existing conflicts are rife.

In short, the global community as a whole, managed to mitigate the impact of the pandemic, although strategies are far from perfect.

In this context, OPEC+ has a responsibility to look after its interest while not taking any measure that could potentially harm the global economy – and the nations of the OPEC+ too, ultimately.





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