Friday, 15 August 2025

Volatility in the Middle East: is another conflict in the offing?

   
Renewed Israel Iran conflict
 
    
It's unusual for two rival Israeli politicians from opposing camps to deliver the same message to the Iranian people, but that's precisely what happened this week. Both current Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu and former Prime Minister Naftali Bennett released video messages directly addressing Iranians, offering help with the country's severe water crisis. 

Iran is currently facing a severe water shortage, especially in the capital, Tehran. This issue, which has been growing for decades, is a major problem throughout the country. It is widely attributed to government negligence, a struggling economy, and increasingly tight international sanctions.

Mr Netanyahu's message went further, blaming Iran's theocracy for the nation's economic problems and calling for a popular uprising to topple the regime. Mr Bennett followed suit with a similar appeal.

Their hope is that a popular uprising could materialize, but the success of this strategy remains to be seen. Although there was hope for such a movement during the recent conflict, nothing materialized.

While most Iranians are highly educated and proud of their rich culture, making them wary of chaos, there's no clear alternative to the current regime besides a highly active diaspora. With a literacy rate of nearly 99% in urban areas - and 88% in the rest of the country - Iranians are well-versed in political and economic affairs, and they don't want to see their country descend into the kind of chaos that plagues Iraq, Syria, or Libya. 

Despite this, frustration is high. The currency is in freefall, international sanctions are tightening, and the EU may trigger snapback sanctions over the unresolved nuclear issue. The "shadow war" between the two nations, Iran and Israel, continues, unabated: mysterious fires are reported in Iran, which authorities dismiss as accidents, while Iran has released images of the Israeli war cabinet in its crosshairs. 

In response, Israel has threatened in public to target Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei if he emerges from his bunker. 

In a separate, but a crucial development, Armenia and Azerbaijan signed a peace deal, granting the US access to a strategic corridor that borders Iran. Both nations border Iran as well. Armenia, Christian-dominated country, has historically maintained warm relations with Iran, while Azerbaijan, a Shia-majority country, has frosty relations and strong military ties with Israel. Iran has previously even accused Azerbaijan of allowing Israel to launch drones from its territory, citing eye witness accounts from those who live close to the border. 

Although Iran protested this new corridor, it has since toned down its rhetoric, likely due to a heavy focus on domestic issues. Meanwhile, Israel has conducted military drills simulating a multi-pronged attack from Jordan, the Houthis, and Hezbollah. Apart from the nuclear issue, a move to resurrect its air defences could provoke Israel and the region may be back in war mode.

Israel’s defence minister has stated his nation's determination to maintain air superiority over Iranian skies. In a new development, Mr Netanyahu, meanwhile, said recently that 400 kg of enriched Uranium was not destroyed during the 12-day war and the US and Israel were monitoring the situation - a clear indication of a new conflict over the nuclear issue. 

Ultimately, tensions between these two rivals have not subsided, despite the heavy costs on both sides. The situation could flare up again at any time, pushing the region into yet another state of chaos.