Fossil fuels are not going away even after 2045 - OPEC+
Having been emboldened, perhaps, by the chaos engulfing the global energy markets, the OPEC+ says the fossil fuels will still be in use through 2045 and beyond and there will not be a perfect substitute for it for decades to come.
OPEC+ admits that the tendency to
embrace renewable sources will continue unabated. It, however, will be like the
digital divide between the poor and wealthy nations in the information age, with
the rich nations moving ahead with it much faster than the poorer nations,
leaving behind the latter to do the catching-up.
OPEC+ made its latest upbeat forecast
known on Tuesday in its annual World Oil Outlook.
OPEC+ expects 28% growth in energy demand
in proportion to an increase in population in 2045, by over 1.7 billion people.
The cartel says that in order to meet the expected two-fold growth prospect in
a period of 25 years from now, the energy generation must meet a significant
increase.
Dr Mohammed Barkindo, the Secretary
General of the OPEC+, meanwhile, said that focussing on climate control goals
at the expense of the energy needs of the poorer nations is neither workable nor
right, in an interview with an Arabic newspaper.
Dr Barkindo was particularly
critical of those who advocate not investing in hydrocarbons: “We have seen deliberate
attempts to crowd out investments in the hydrocarbon sector on the ground of
climate goals that are not founded in the science or the facts. The IPCC, which
is supposed to be the most authoritative source or body that should guide the
transition, which we at OPEC think is doing a great job and follow very closely
their work. Their work is impeccable and based on science and facts. But
unfortunately, in this conversation, their findings are being set aside,” he
said, according to Al Arabia.
He went on to say that the Paris
Agreement on the climate change is the most pragmatic approach and the fair
one, as it came about after an extensive global debate on the issue.
While referring to what he called
energy poverty, Dr Barkindo said that there are still over 800 million people without
access to electricity, out of which 600 million live in Sub-Saharan Africa. In
addition to it, he says that over 2.6 billion people do not have access to
cooking fuels and 900 million out of them live in Sub-Saharan Africa.
These are startling facts, indeed.
They often get eclipsed by the combination
He concluded the interview,
conducted in Dubai, by saying that the OPEC+ favours an ‘all-inclusive’
transition to the problem of climate change without leaving out anyone,
regardless of the region they hail from.
Although we are almost a decade
away before reaching the climate goals, what goes around us clearly show there
are no easy-fixes to the crisis.
Although the impact on the environment
by the emissions of fossil fuels is real, the inclination to rely on renewables
on macro scale without a mechanism to fall back on has generated fresh doubts
about their viability.
The European energy crisis that everyone
talks about is a classic case in point. It is far from over despite the signals
to the contray, with the price of coal reaching record heights, because
countries keep hoarding coal as a source of back-up if the gas crisis cannot be
solved by winter.
