During a G7 summit press conference in Évian-les-Bains, France, President Trump disclosed that a combination of rapidly depleting Strategic Petroleum Reserves (SPR) and the imminent threat of a global depression forced his hand in signing a Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) with Iran.
The US SPR has been plummeting since the start of the conflict. In response to a journalist's question, President Trump admitted that the US would run out of reserves in about four weeks. He noted that French President Emmanuel Macron had frequently raised this issue, emphasizing the risk of a global economic collapse rivaling the Great Depression of the 1920s.
President Trump remarked that he did not want to be remembered like Herbert Hoover, who presided over the 1929 economic crash, signaling his desire to protect his legacy before leaving office in 2028. He even joked that if the deal succeeded, he would take the credit, but if it failed, he would blame Vice President JD Vance.
While the Strait of Hormuz handles only 20% of the global oil supply, volatility in the waterway threatens severe global economic disruption.
While the Strait of Hormuz handles only 20% of the global oil supply, volatility in the waterway threatens severe global economic disruption.
Despite record oil production by the US and non-OPEC members, Asian economies are suffering the most from rising prices and severe shortages. Even as the world's largest oil producer and exporter, the US has been unable to resolve supply shortages in Europe and Asia, leaving the global economy vulnerable. Furthermore, the US cannot refill its own rapidly depleting SPR, a challenge mirrored by other developed nations lacking domestic oil reserves.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s off-the-cuff, somewhat amusing remarks during the press conference caught several allies off guard. He complicated matters for the UAE by criticizing its "muscular approach" and bombing campaign against Iran, especially, targeting a specific bridge in Iran. He also claimed that Israel would not exist without him and suggested Iran could retain some ballistic missiles because Gulf Arab states possess a similar arsenal.
The deal has exposed internal rifts too. The body language of officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated divisions within the administration, and the Republican Party remains deeply divided on the issue. Additionally, while Mr. Trump previously insisted on retrieving "nuclear dust"—destroyed enriched uranium from Iran’s Fordow plant—his recent comments suggest he no longer sees a point in doing so, indicating he is now open to allowing Iran a limited level of uranium enrichment rather than demanding zero enrichment.
Meanwhile, President Trump’s off-the-cuff, somewhat amusing remarks during the press conference caught several allies off guard. He complicated matters for the UAE by criticizing its "muscular approach" and bombing campaign against Iran, especially, targeting a specific bridge in Iran. He also claimed that Israel would not exist without him and suggested Iran could retain some ballistic missiles because Gulf Arab states possess a similar arsenal.
The deal has exposed internal rifts too. The body language of officials like Secretary of State Marco Rubio indicated divisions within the administration, and the Republican Party remains deeply divided on the issue. Additionally, while Mr. Trump previously insisted on retrieving "nuclear dust"—destroyed enriched uranium from Iran’s Fordow plant—his recent comments suggest he no longer sees a point in doing so, indicating he is now open to allowing Iran a limited level of uranium enrichment rather than demanding zero enrichment.
President Trump justified his shift in position by arguing that if Iran's Gulf Arab neighbors can pursue nuclear projects, Iran should be allowed to do the same.
Ultimately, significant doubts persist regarding the durability of the deal for both the US and Iran. In this context, the current 60-day window serves primarily as a tactical period for both rivals to closely monitor each other's moves.
Ultimately, significant doubts persist regarding the durability of the deal for both the US and Iran. In this context, the current 60-day window serves primarily as a tactical period for both rivals to closely monitor each other's moves.
