Oirl price rises: Iran's entry into markets vs OPEC+ outcome


OPEC+ meeting June

Crude oil price has been on a rising trend today since the markets opened for trading, with analysts being all eyes and ears at the virtual conference of the OPEC+.

With the feasibility of Iran’s legitimate entry into the oil markets weighing heavily on the supply side of the equation, the anticipated outcome of the meeting may shed some light on the progress of the talks in Vienna on 2015 Iranian nuclear deal too.

If Iran haggles over its right to increase production, against the wishes of the most of the members of the OPEC+, it is an indication of possible breakthrough in the next few days during the talks on the JCPOA, also known as 2015 nuclear deal in Vienna.

According to Iranian negation team in Vienna, both sides  of the signatories to the JCPOA have faced stumbling blocks in pursuing  a deal; in today’s OPEC+ meeting, Iran may find that what it faces in Vienna is not the only stumbling block when it comes to reviving its crude oil trade – to the level it desired.

The OPEC+ held the Joint Technical Committee (JTC) meeting yesterday that normally analyses the demand and other related factors affecting the current oil price; it usually precedes the ministerial meeting that ultimately makes the decisions.

The participating delegates are tight-lipped and even sources close to them are cautious, because there was an unexpected outcome in the last minute in a recent meeting, defying the expectations – and popular speculations.

The only way to gauge the Iranian position – and that of the rest of the signatories – is what Iranian state-backed media says about the latest developments.

They blame the slow progress in the last stages of talks in Vienna over the JCPOA on certain ‘West Asian’ nations; the use of plural sense indicates the involvement of more than one country that Iran think is hampering the talks; that means, Iran believes it is not just Israel, which do not want a deal being reached; the Iranian media simply took a swipe at the prominent Sunni Arab nations in the region.

The impasse in Vienna during the discussions may be the factor that pushes the oil price up. That means it still has the potential to cast a long shadow over the outcome of the OPEC+ meeting today.

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