The US is holding 'off-year' elections that occur between the Presidential and mid-term elections. On the eve of these contests, President Trump issued a bleak assessment of potential outcomes via his Truth Social platform. This move appears to pre-empt any damage to his image should the results favour the Democrats.
While some of his actions, like securing the southern border to curb uncontrolled migration, may be popular, economic issues such as high inflation are likely to be the decisive factor in today's vote.
Just two days prior, on November 2nd, President Trump's own Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, contradicted his boss with a significant statement about the US economy. Bessent characterized it as a "two-speed" economy, stating, "Some sectors of the US economy such as housing and manufacturing may be in recession." He quickly attributed this explicitly to high interest rates and the Federal Reserve for raising the borrowing cost for ordinary citizens.
Economists suggest that the Trump administration's "on-off-and-on-again" tariff policies are partially to blame for the recessionary pressures in certain sectors, although Mr. Bessent did not specifically name these secondary causes.
For example, the US imports over 80% of its softwood lumber from Canada. Tariffs imposed by President Trump on this commodity have directly raised building costs and reduced housing affordability for many Americans.
Furthermore, tariffs on many commonly used imported items have been a major contributing factor to overall inflation.
The inflationary pressure stemming from these tariffs has not been offset by the steadily falling oil prices that President Trump helped bring about.
If opponents of President Trump's policies turn out in large numbers at the polls, the election results will not only frustrate the former President but may also compel him to search for not just one scapegoat, but a "herd of them" in the coming days.
