Drones, allegedly from Russia, have once again forced Denmark, a NATO member, to close its airspace. This marks the second such incident in just a few days, raising concerns across Europe. Similar airspace violations have been reported in other NATO countries, including Estonia and Poland, as well as in Finland.
While these drone intrusions haven't resulted in casualties, the psychological impact on Europe is significant. In response, NATO members affected by the violations have threatened to shoot down Russian aircraft. Russia, in turn, has dismissed these threats, claiming such an action would lead to war.
The response from the Trump administration has been a source of anxiety for many European nations; it's pretty lukewarm. Although President Trump has stated that Russian provocations are unacceptable, he has not specified what actions the U.S. would take if the violations continue. This has left European members of the alliance in a state of uncertainty, as they look to the U.S. for strong diplomatic or military leadership.
The Trump administration shows little enthusiasm to confront Russia on a diplomatic front, let alone that of military. Some analysts believe the U.S. may not get involved in a direct conflict between Russia and Europe unless its own security is directly threatened. With President Trump's publicly stated ambition to win the Nobel Peace Prize, it seems unlikely he would risk a war with Russia. He just focuses on hitting Russia economically by threatening the buyers of Russian oil with inevitable economic consequences that keep evolving.
Although President Trump wants Europe, India and Türkiye to stop buying oil from Russia in order to hit its economy, they show no sign of taking heed of the request, as it is easier said than done. On the other hand, President Trump knows the impact of such a move on the oil price in the long run, if Russia couldn't sell its oil; the price of oil will not stay at the current level, if two major players such as Russia and Iran cannot sell their oil. After all, keeping oil and gas prices law is one of his main campaign promises during the last election.
Faced with these constant violations, the affected NATO members have limited options beyond invoking Article 4. This action would force a meeting to discuss a serious security threat posed by a non-NATO country.
