As markets prepare to open tomorrow, analysts and investors are closely monitoring the fallout from the high-profile U.S. nocturnal raid that captured Nicolás Maduro and his wife. While the operation initially sparked euphoria, that sentiment is rapidly shifting toward anxiety as the short-term market implications remain uncertain.
President Trump’s subsequent victory speech did little to stabilize nerves. His declaration that "the US will run post-Maduro Venezuela" has caused international alarm, resonating far beyond autocracies or nations facing criminal charges. This assertive stance has specifically unsettled authorities in Greenland and Denmark, reviving concerns about Trump’s previous interests in Greenland’s strategic value as a buffer against Russian and Chinese influence in the Arctic.
The transition of power in Caracas is proving exceptionally volatile:
Military Defiance: The Défense Minister has firmly rejected surrender.
Succession Crisis: The former Vice President, now acting as President, is demanding Maduro’s immediate release.
Political Veto: President Trump has already side-lined the popular Nobel Laureate and opposition leader, dismissively claiming she lacks the popularity to lead.
The administration appears to be seeking a "remote control" governance model to satisfy a MAGA base that remains staunchly opposed to putting American boots on the ground. However, this power vacuum is being filled by state-sponsored civilian militias, signalling the potential for a protracted guerrilla conflict—a scenario South American history knows all too well.
Ultimately, the prospect of global markets being flooded with Venezuelan crude remains a distant reality. For now, a significant crash in oil prices is unlikely as stability in the region stays out of reach.
